Here are some things to watch for as the results come in: Today’s voting should give an indication of whether Sanders is strong enough to win. But following her startling defeat in Michigan last week, Clinton could, in fact, lose.
On the Democratic side, the nomination is, and almost surely will still be tomorrow, Hillary Clinton’s to lose. But by the end of the evening, if he wins all five states - and polls say it’s possible - he will have put away two of his three remaining rivals, and substantially widened his lead over the one left standing. The audiences at his victory parties-cum-press conferences are limited to supporters and the media, and the events typically find the candidate on his best behavior. But this time, one, or potentially both, nominations could be all but sealed by the end of the night.Īs usual, all eyes will be on Donald Trump, because, really, who can look away? The edgy rage and sporadic violence that has characterized his rallies over the past week won’t be in evidence when he takes the podium tonight at his Palm Beach resort club, Mar-a-Lago. I considered saying something to the Fred '08 folks.īut I was afraid that the result might be that I wouldn't get any of their e-mails.īetter to see them three times, I guess, than not at all.Some newscasts are calling today Super Tuesday, and your memory isn’t playing tricks on you if you’re thinking, Didn’t we just have one of those? Today, when voters go to the polls in five big states - Florida, Illinois, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina - marks the second crucial, all-important, potentially decisive primary day in two weeks. The problem was that it sent me three copies of each message, including the final one that said he was bowing out. It's not that his campaign sent noticeably more electronic missives than most of the others, though it sent plenty. If he can't win there, potential supporters elsewhere might conclude that a vote for him is wasted.Ī trivial personal note on the exit of Thompson from the race: It means my e-mail box will be considerably less cluttered. He needs to show that he can expand his support beyond evangelical Christians.įlorida has become for him what South Carolina was to former Tennessee Sen. Not so Huckabee, who hasn't won anywhere except in Iowa on Jan. With their recent victories, McCain and Romney probably can survive with a merely respectable showing there.
One likely reason: Clinton leads handily in the polls. Hence the Obama campaign has downplayed the significance of Florida, even while running ads there. That's true even among the Democrats, even though the party has - at least for now - stripped Florida of its delegates because it moved up its primary. More important, the victor will be seen as one going into Feb. 5 playing field.įlorida, too, is winner-take-all for the GOP. Giuliani has a chance in all of them, especially New York.īut if there is any lesson of the campaign so far, it's that it's risky to use "as things stand now" to project future trends.įor both parties, but especially the Republicans, Tuesday's primaries in Florida could re-tilt the Feb. That is, the winner of those states' GOP primaries gets all of their nominating convention delegates. Yet another reason is that four primaries that day - in Giuliani's home state of New York as well as in New Jersey, Connecticut and Delaware - are "winner-take-all." So McCain can't count as much as he has on independents to swell his support. In many states, only registered Republicans may vote. That, despite Giuliani's dismal showing in early contests, is one reason why it's too early to count him out.Īnother is that on Super-Duper Tuesday, McCain will have a problem similar to Obama's. John McCain, is on the rebound in both categories.įormer New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is second only to Romney in money and likely his equal in organizing. The Lazarus of the GOP field, Arizona's Sen. Mike Huckabee has little money and is just beginning to muster his troops. Mitt Romney has lots of money - much of it his own - and a reasonably strong organization. Once again, this gives an advantage to candidates with money and organization.įormer Massachusetts Gov. Consider: Only 78 GOP delegates will have been picked so far.
The fallout of Tsunami Tuesday likely will be even more tidal wave-like on the Republicans. Thus, Obama won't get the lift he got from independents in earlier states.
In many Super-Duper Tuesday showdowns, only registered Democrats can vote. Obama will lack one advantage he had earlier. The biggest prize, of course, will be California, where Clinton still leads in the polls, but not by as much as she did two months ago.
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